Disclosures: The following post is my opinion and yes, I am biased … I’m a long-term Apple () shareholder.
A good courtroom drama often involves the use of professional witnesses. These “opinions for hire” will take the stand to support one side’s case. A savvy opposing council will make sure the jury understands that the “expert” has been compensated for his/her appearance. The lawyer may also call on another expert to counter the first pro’s testimony.
The courtroom is not the only venue for biased (“paid for”) testimony. This game plays out every day in the media. Journalists eager for a hot story will often regurgitate reports delivered on silver-platter by (*cough*) independent experts. The sad truth is that many of these so-called experts are in fact shilling for their paying clients who have a vested interest in carefully crafted opinions. Unfortunately, when you leave the courtroom and enter the realm of mass media, there is no opposing council to shine a spotlight on conflicts that may taint “expert testimony.” The majority of journalists fail miserably at asking direct disclosure questions – “Are you talking your book?” … “Do any of your clients stand to gain from your commentary and analysis?” And only a handful of media organizations have taken steps to include “conflict of interest” disclosures in their reports. The result is that “paid for” opinions are everywhere masquerading as legitimate analysis.
Rob Enderle
One example that comes to mind is the apparent “outing” of Rob Enderle. In 2006, the Principal Analyst of the Enderle Group was banned from offering up any further Microsoft “punditry” via the New York Times. As Times spokeswoman Abbe Serphos explained; “To maintain impartiality in its coverage, The Times tries to avoid quoting analysts who have an obvious business relationship with a company on, say, new products of that company.”
Despite Enderle’s long-standing business ties in Redmond, very few media outlets have followed the Times’ lead (enforcing an effective disclosure policy). You will likely hear Rob quoted again when the Zune HD is launched. Let me guess … Enderle will conclude that Microsoft’s Zune is superior to Apple’s offerings. The good news is that virtually everyone who follows Apple “gets” the Enderle joke. The bad news is that too many journalists are clueless and the joke (he) will be repeated over and again.
Rob Enderle may have a kindred spirit in the person of Danish telecom analyst John Strand. Mr Strand counts 160 clients in his stable, and he is getting quite a bit of notoriety for his thesis that no mobile carrier has yet, or ever will if you believe Strand, make money from an iPhone deal. It’s not just Apple’s contractual arrangements that Strand questions … there is virtually nothing that he likes about iPhone (wonder how many competing handset manufacturers Strand counts as clients?). Strand compares Apple’s smartphone to Paris Hilton – pretty on the outside but empty underneath.
Fellow Apple (AAPL) shareholder, Howlongtoretire, delivers up a good debunking of John Strand here > Why John Strand is (intentionally) clueless about the iPhone
Here’s an excerpt:
Strand called the iPhone the “Paris Hilton of mobile devices” as if the iPhone is all show and no substance. Of particular interest to me was his quip about Apple’s App Store. You can hear him yourself by playing the video clip below (at about the 50 second mark).
MIR MWC – John Strand from Mobile Industry Review on Vimeo.
“If you look at the installed base, Apple represents about 0.1 percent of all mobile phones in the world, so it’s a little bit like saying ‘Oh, if you’re in the clothes industry, the way to learn about the clothes industry, and how you get success, is looking at companies who’s [sic] making clothes for dwarfs.’ And Apple is a dwarf in this industry.”
1.8 billion app downloads
Really? Seriously? This is a (not-so-shrewd) bait and switch whereby Strand has presented unit sale market share as application and internet market share. Yes, Apple has a comparatively small share of overall unit sales, but an overwhelming lead in available apps, app revenue, downloads, mobile photo uploads, and browser use? How can this be? Anyone? Bueller? Strand insists that it is “more interesting to look at the 99.9 percent” of the phones out there. Hmmm?
30 million iPhones in 2 yrs
Why do I see so many iPhones out and about when iPhones only represent 0.1 percent? Because people use them.
Read Howlongtoretire’s full post > HERE See also Apple 2.0 post on John Strand
A new report from Strand Consult The moment of truth, a portrait of the iPhone was recently lapped up by dozens of journalists eager to repost Strand’s anti-iPhone propaganda. Strand’s provocative report is pure link-bait gold.
“Our research shows that there is not one single Apple partner in the world among the mobile operators that has increased their overall turnover, profit and market share due to the iPhone.” ~ John Strand
If you give the Stand report any credibility (and I don’t), you’d have to scratch your head and wonder why any carrier would ever do a deal with Apple? They must all be idiots! Excepting, of course, any of Strand’s own clients (who may be hoping for better deal terms). Strand’s report comes with a cover e-mail containing the ten (10) largest “myths” about iPhone:
- The iPhone drives data traffic into mobile operators networks
- The iPhone helps operators attract new customers
- The iPhone is good business for mobile operators
- The iPhone is dominating the mobile services market
- App store is a huge success that has revolutionised the services market
- There is money to be made by developing applications for the iPhone
- It is iPhone customers that are generating the majority of online mobile surfing traffic
- The iPhone has a large market share
- The iPhone was the first mobile phone with a touchscreen
- The iPhone is a technologically advanced mobile phone
Before breaking out in hysterical laughter, remember in “14 years we [Strand Consult] have never made a mistake in our predictions … it sounds arrogant, but Google me.” ~ John Strand
The story behind Strand Consult’s report The moment of truth, a portrait of the iPhone – why have we published a free 100+ page report about a mobile phone….
During the summer of 2009, Strand Consult allocated four of our key employees to write the report The moment of truth, a portrait of the iPhone. A report that describes the financial reality that market players must face regarding the iPhone – a reality some call the iPhone Effect.
Many have asked why we spent so much time and resources on describing the financial reality that is part of the iPhone market? Some have also asked why we are so critical about Apple and the iPhone and whether it is due to some sort of hatred towards the company or phone that millions of people love? Our answer is as always; Strand Consult has nothing against Apple or the iPhone, we simply believe that there is a part of that market that many are overlooking, a reality that we would like to describe.
Strand Consult is a 15-year-old company that since its launch has made a living from helping over 160 mobile operators around the world, by giving them information about the market and how it is developing. We are completely neutral regarding both operators and technology providers. Our most important company goal is to give our customers an objective and critical view of the reality that their business is a part of.
Our founder and CEO John Strand is well-known for his extensive insight in the mobile market and for stating his honest point of view on how he sees the market and how it is developing. Those that have met John Strand know that his opinion cannot be purchased, but is based on his experience and the in-depth analyses from his employees. You can read more about John Strand here: http://www.understandingmobile.com
When the iPhone originally launched, it was amidst enormous media attention that was controlled with almost military precision by Apple. Operators that launched the phone selected the journalists they wanted to test the product and Apple then censored the lists and ensured that those journalists that had been critical about Apple through the years did not receive an opportunity to test the iPhone.
As an increasing number of operators around the world have launched the iPhone, an increasing number of myths surrounding the iPhone have also emerged, myths that have often been launched by various “experts” that have had certain views about the iPhone, but that rarely painted the whole picture of the market that the iPhone is a part of and the reality that the mobile operators’ shareholders must face. In our report we call this The 10 iPhone Myths:-
Since the iPhone launched, we have held many workshops for operators around the world. During these workshops there have often been discussions regarding the iPhone and whether it has had a positive effect on a mobile operator by for example increasing the number of their customers, or decreasing churn, or increasing their revenue and profits?
After a while we had reached a point where we had access to a great deal of financial information about how the iPhone was influencing the operators’ business cases and we had all our comprehensive information and analyses about the mobile market in general and we knew that this information would be very relevant for our customers, to give them a more accurate and comprehensive overview of the iPhone market than the one we most often saw being portrayed in the media.
The report was not ordered or paid for by any company. We have not been contracted by an operator, mobile manufacturer or anyone else in the industry to write this report. This free report that thousands of people have now received has been compiled and published without any cooperation with the handset manufacturers.
Strand Consult makes a living by being objective. We do business by delivering objective information about the telecom market and our report about the iPhone is just one of many examples of how we are not afraid of telling the truth – even if it means making some enemies in the short term.
Today we can see that our report has been referred to in over 1000 articles around the world. We have received very positive feedback from the thousands that have already received their free copy and are daily receiving thank-you messages about this unique report that four of our employees spend their summer writing. In fact we have received many mails from operators around the world that have stated that the report contains a great deal of very exciting information and has been a good tool to base an internal debate on how operators view various mobile handsets.
We hope that our report can help lift the iPhone debate to a more objective level and that it has cleared up some of the 10 myths surrounding the iPhone – and basically helps ensure that the debate about the mobile market and how it is developing will be a little more serious in the future.
The report has been written according to the ethical rules we always abide by and our dialogue with the press follows our 7 ground rules which we have been following for many years: http://www.strandconsult-press.com. We know that the 300+ journalists that have contacted us about the report have had total freedom to evaluate our product, without any demands at all from us about what they choose to write.
If you have not yet read the report The moment of truth, a portrait of the iPhone, you are welcome to order your free copy here: http://www.strandreports.com/sw3871.asp . Strand Consult is always open to objective criticism and we would be happy to participate in any debates regarding the conclusions in our reports. We believe it is our most important goal to contribute objective information about the mobile market and how it is developing – and we have been successfully doing just that for 15 years.
Mr. Strand:
I have followed your musings for some time. I have received and read your 105 page paper. If you want a discussion, please ALLOW us to quote from the paper. I think the iPhone is a revolutionary device for the consumer. It is a market changer. The telecom world is changing and will continue to change dramatically because of the iPhone. The other “smartphone” manufacturers will be toast in two years. If I could quote from your paper, I could prove it to you.
Wow. That is perhaps the shallowest and most pompous defense I’ve ever read.
Give it a rest, Strand. Anytime you call a product a “toy” you’ve crossed the line from empirical facts to opinion. Your study – and I use the term loosely – is chocked full of such bits of slanted reality.
Yeah, right.
No iPhone bias in this paragraph of yours – you do not even attempt to hide your disdain for the company (Apple) that successfully too the customer relationship away from the operators (who have been ripping off customers for too long), by having the fortitude to stand up to the wireless operators – and the candy the operators wanted and still want
Here is your paragraph
When the iPhone originally launched, it was amidst enormous media attention that was controlled with almost military precision by Apple. Operators that launched the phone selected the journalists they wanted to test the product and Apple then censored the lists and ensured that those journalists that had been critical about Apple through the years did not receive an opportunity to test the iPhone.
The ever vigilant Apple Finance Board has an interesting thread on John Strand. A good read > http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/76539/
I will add my two cents. While Strand may feel he understands the market from the carrier perspective, he fails to realize a paradigm shift in the mobile phone industry. Apple is not bringing a mobile phone to market. They are marketing a mobile computer with phone capabilities. The problem most folks have with major technology transitions is they view the change in their current paradigm. Apple is not selling phones, they are selling a mobile broadband connection to a pocket computer. In the not too distant future voice will be one of many methods to communicate via mobile device. I would say with younger demographics, the change is already well along. Mr Strand with all his expertise is still looking at mobile broadband from a perspective of the mobile phone replacing the fixed network, the Iphone represents the future of communication. Beam me up Scotty.
Charlie Rose interviews Sprint’s CEO Dan Hesse here: http://charlierose.http.internapcdn.net/charlierose/091009hesse.wmv
Dan Hesse really likes the iPhone. But he doesn’t SELL it. Perhaps Mr. Strand should talk to him!!!
@artman1033 Thanks for posting the Dan Hesse interview. Great take on mobile and the smartphone revolution! Very much worth a view!
http://charlierose.http.internapcdn.net/charlierose/091009hesse.wmv
Strand Consult is a company that is struggling to deal with its own irrelevancy.
This is my opinion after reading several of Mr. Strand’s replies.
The iPhone hasn’t caused this irrelevancy, it is caused by Stand Consult’s own strategic business model and its own corporate tie ups being proved to be headed in a less market-meaningful direction.
Translation: Strand Consult decided, for some reason, to allow itself to be adrift in a sea of mobile device companies struggling to re-invent themselves after apple redefined the market.
Staff redundancies generally follow such strategic business model errors.