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China Mobile CEO - Wang Jianzhou

With apologies to long time iPhonAsia readers … but once again (for the umpteenth time) China Mobile CEO Wang Jianzhou revealed (WSJ March 4, 2010) that China Mobile is in “talks” with Apple to offer iPhone.

Apple’s deal with China Unicom is non-exclusive and it’s possible that one day China Mobile and Apple will indeed come to terms on an iPhone deal. Summer of 2010 would be good timing.

If Apple and China Mobile reach an agreement, it is more likely that the deal will be to offer consumers a low-priced EDGE 2G iPhone. Why 2G? EDGE is a very reliable network used by 500+ million China Mobile consumers. Despite substantial state backing, the newly launched TDSCDMA (China Mobile’s 3G network) has not motivated enough mobile consumers to upgrade to 3G (requiring the purchase of a TDSCDMA capable handset) and the China developed 3G standard may not be long for this world. TD-LTE 4G will likely supplant TDSCDMA by 2012. In my opinion, Apple would only reluctantly add TDSCDMA support in a special “for China Mobile” iPhone. If Apple does agree to add a chipset that supports TDSCDMA, then you can be sure that the deal involves a massive pre-purchase commitment by China Mobile … good for Apple (AAPL).

In the wake of the latest comments from China Unicom CEO Chang Xiaobing (stating that China Unicom and Apple are engaged in discussions over the possibility of delivering an “official” WiFi-enabled iPhone to China) there were rumors that China Unicom would drop the price of the current iPhone models, which have no WiFi capability (no WiFi chip – disabled at the hardware level). These price drop rumors (down 20-30% depending on model) can apparently be traced to a Bank America/Merrill Lynch source … or so says the  ().

China Unicom says . In theory, a substantial price drop might signal “inventory clearing” for a new model iPhone. But evidently a price drop is not imminent, and if it happens, it could be months down the road.

Sidebar: Earlier this week, China Unicom announced they will launch a new Android 2.0-powered smartphone — Motorola XT701 — that will support WCDMA 3G, and the Wi-Fi/WAPI stack.

Apple has made a habit of launching new model iPhones in the summer and it would not be a stretch to imagine a “fourth generation” iPhone making an appearance circa July/Aug/Sept 2010.  This might also be the most logical time to unveil a new model(s) iPhone for China. If a new “special production run” for China is in the cards, it might (or might not) include both WAPI and WiFi. Read more background re > WAPI/WiFi on iPhone

There have been several unsubstantiated rumors in the tech blogosphere about Apple launching a low-price iPhone model for China and other large “pre-paid” (no cellular contract) markets such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Russia, et. al.. There has also been plenty of Net “buzz” (wild rumors) about a so-called “World iPhone” that might support CDMA 3G and GSM/UMTS 3G (China Unicom’s WCDMA 3G is a GSM standard). Many tech pundits dismiss the possibility of a CDMA capable iPhone, as it’s “yesterday’s” 3G technology. However, a CDMA model could work on Verizon’s network in the US and also on China Telecom’s CDMA 2000 3G network in China. It would be interesting to see a low-price “World iPhone” that supports the CDMA/GSM/UMTS + WAPI/WiFi tandem. Alas, there are many technical, practical and political hurdles to overcome in launching such a World iPhone and I won’t be holding my breath. But sometin’ new is coming … that you can bank on.

Even before iPhone officially launched in China, there was considerable buzz in China’s tech press suggesting that Apple would ultimately come to some form of compromise with China’s telecom authorities and be allowed to launch a WiFi-enabled iPhone in China. That day may be coming as soon as late summer 2010 (timeline is purely my guess). Earlier this week, China Unicom Chairman, Chang Xiaobing, revealed (report via Owen Fletcher – ComputerWorld) that there are ;

China Unicom CEO - Chang Xiaobing

I know that in the market there is hope we will offer an iPhone with Wi-Fi … We have been holding talks with Apple in this area.

Chang Xiaobing did not say whether the iPhone would include China’s home grown version of WiFi (“WAPI”), but he did say that it “will satisfy demands in the Chinese market.”

This latest “WiFi” tease is no great surprise. Chang Xiaobing has made no secret of his support for WiFi on iPhone. In exchanges with the press before iPhone launched (October 2009), Chang Xiaobing almost had to bite his lip to avoid saying too much (definitive “WiFi is coming” statements would harm current iPhone sales). In Fall 2009, even before iPhone launched in China, Chang Xiaobing and other China Unicom execs were dropping hints in the tech press that WiFi would eventually be on the iPhone for China. China Unicom had suggested then (and now) that the ball is in Apple’s court.

The hurdle in the Fall of 2009 was China’s highly restrictive “WiFi on handsets” policy promoted and enforced by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). Prior to the Spring of 2009, WiFi was expressly forbidden on mobile devices with cellular (calling) service. In April 2009 there was a compromise policy authorized by the MIIT that allowed WiFi on handsets as long as the phone also included China’s home grown Wireless LAN Authentication and Privacy Infrastructure (WAPI). WAPI is China’s version of WiFi. Read more backgorund about WAPI/WiFi on iPhone > here

The rules (new policy allowing WAPI/WiFi in combination) changed very late in the game for Apple and it’s entirely possible that Apple had insufficient time (before Oct 2009 launch) to address the technical issues associated with building a WAPI/WiFi iPhone for China. Moreover, it runs against Apple’s DNA to build a special model iPhone solely for one market … even if that market is China. But … never say never! The current model iPhone for China Unicom is already a special production run (no WiFi chip + many “for China” apps preloaded). If China Unicom commits to a sufficiently large iPhone pre-purchase, then Apple may entertain the idea of a WAPI/WiFi iPhone. There were reports (later denied) last August that China Uniciom had agreed to pre-purchase 5,000,000 iPhones from Apple for $1.46 billion USD. This pre-purchase could help sway Apple in favor of the WAPI/WiFi combo.

Update – March 2, 2010: Apple files suit against HTC

HTC Nexus One (Google Phone)

Boom! One month after Google’s latest OS update enabled “multi-touch,” Apple has dropped the much anticipated bomb … a patent lawsuit. But rather than sue Google, Apple is going after HTC and perhaps (soon?) other handset manufacturers who opt to deploy Apple’s patented intellectual property (IP). NOTE: Taiwan-based HTC (formerly known as High Tech Computer Corporation), is a leading manufacturer of Android-based smartphones, including the Nexus One, the so-called Google Phone.

While there are numerous mentions of HTC’s infringement on Apple’s key multi-touch patent – US Patent 7,479,949, — this is a much broader action. Apple’s suit (filed March 2 ,2010) against HTC, alleges that HTC is infringing 20 patents related to the iPhone’s user interface, underlying architecture, and hardware.” In concert with the lawsuit, Apple issued a statement from CEO Steve Jobs;

We can sit by and watch competitors steal our patented inventions, or we can do something about it. We’ve decided to do something about it. We think competition is healthy, but competitors should create their own original technology, not steal ours.

Sidebar: Lest anyone harbor the idea that Apple might someday license its patents to competitors … let me disabuse you of that notion. During the recently concluded Apple (AAPL) shareholder’s meeting, fellow AAPL shareholder (and editor of Roughly Drafted Magazine) Daniel Eran Dilger asked Steve Jobs about that very possibility … Jobs’ succinct response; “Apple isn’t in the business of licensing technology.”

Apple’s legal team appears to be ready for battle and has submitted over 700 pages of exhibits to the District Court in Delaware. Apple also filed a complaint with the International Trade Commission in an effort to block imports of HTC handsets that violate patents cited in the lawsuit. HTC’s Android phones are specifically included because they run the Android OS, yet HTC’s Windows Mobile phones are also included in the suit, apparently due to an issue with DSP chips.

It is interesting that Apple has chosen to focus on HTC in this (initial?) lawsuit. This action is clearly a shot across Google and Palm’s bow and may give other handset manufactures pause before adopting Android or any other OS that utilizes multi-touch or other Apple IP.

Update – Feb. 2, 2010: Do you feel lucky Google (HTC and other Android phones)?

Well lookie here … Google’s latest Android OS update activates multi-touch (enabling pinch-to-zoom) on the HTC Nexus One … the so-called Google phone.

I wonder whether Google is counting on the same “prior art” claim (invoked by Palm in a PR campaign) to get around Apple’s patents?* You also have to ask why Google did not activate multi-touch on Nexus One from the get go? Perhaps because they know that Apple has a solid claim to several important multi-touch patents.

You have to ask yourself a simple question Google/HTC/Palm/Moto/Nokia, was that five Apple patents or was it six? Seeing as Apple’s multi-touch is the most powerful patent on the planet, you have to ask yourself one question … Do you feel lucky? Well do ya?”

Despite Apple’s patents, Palm defiantly enabled multi-touch on the Pre (read post below). Several patent attorneys have suggested that Palm’s prior art stance might be shot down in court, yet Apple chose to take no immediate action. Why? Only a handful inside Apple know. I suspect Palm has not sold enough Pre phones to warrant a move by Apple’s Legal team. But Apple’s lack of action against Palm might have emboldened Google. Now that Google too has crossed the proverbial line in the sand, I would not be surprised if Apple Legal metes out some Dirty Harry street justice on multi-touch patent violators.

*NOTE: Apple was recently granted key multi-touch display patents – US Patent 7,653,883 originally filed in Q3 2005 and US Patent 7,479,949

June 17, 2009 – Palm betting on “prior art” to keep multi-touch on Pre
palm_pre_1photos-hardware-05-20090608

Now that the Palm Pre has launched … it might be time to recall that Apple holds the patent rights for multi-touch gestures on touch-screen mobile handsets.

Other touch-screen handset manufacturers have been careful to avoid a direct mimicking of Apple’s trademarked touch-screen controls (e.g. two finger pinch-in, pinch-out, etc.). But Palm is taking an “in your face” stance on the rights to multi-touch via their new Pre smartphone.

Lefty the Chimp creating prior art

Lefty the Chimp creating prior art

Notwithstanding Apple’s patent (US Patent 7,479,949) and acquisition of FingerWorks‘ IP in 2005 … Palm’s lawyers are apparently betting big on “prior art” to undermine Apple’s rights and avoid legal rulings that would support Apple’s IP. And many are expecting Palm’s team of legal eagles to prepare examples of prior art along with depositions from the “creators” themselves. Palm’s team are even helping “Lefty the Chimp,” a brilliant multi-touch artist (photo – above right) to prepare his deposition, as he has trouble with written English.

Apple's Mona Lisa was inspired by

Apple's Mona Lisa was inspired by "prior art"... so says Palm

Apple’s Mona Lisa (right) was inspired by “prior art” … so says Palm

Leonardo da Vinci too was a lefty. But Lefty the Chimp is no Leonardo da Vinci! … so says Apple

Let the lawsuits begin!

Year of the Tiger 2010

Update – February 26, 2010: read CNBC tech reporter Jim Goldman’s post > Palm’s Major Credibility Problem … read also All Things Digital post by John Paczkowski > Palm Agonistes

February 13, 2010: The following is my response to a reader question about reports of Palm temporarily halting handset production via their OEM partner Foxconn. All Things Digital and Boy Genius Report have the scoop on this story. Last week, Palm short sellers had been hammering the stock () and fomenting rumors of weak product demand. The “shorts” were squeezed (stock went up) on Friday when Palm denied any “demand problem” and clarified that the 2-week production hiatus has been planned for some time, and for good/logical reasons — coincides with the Chinese Lunar Holiday (Year of the Tiger) which begins on February 14, 2010.

Question: “Dan .. Is Palm’s Chinese New Years story a cover up?”

Answer: Good question … Short answer is “I don’t know.” It sounds like Palm’s abrupt production stand-down order was a surprise to Foxconn. I’m not sure I buy into Palm’s party line — “we over-produced in Feb in anticipation of the holiday.” This sudden move smacks of a Palm demand problem.

Palm’s 2-week work stoppage exceeds the official holiday

Palm’s excuse is that the “temporary shutdown” is intended to accommodate China’s New Year holiday. The Lunar New Year in China (Year of the Tiger) is a big deal and it’s understandable that Foxconn’s* production line would come to a halt during the festivities. Yet Palm’s shutdown, for the remainder of the month of February (two-weeks), goes beyond the official 4-day Lunar holiday.

A Palm buyout in the offing?

One might theorize that the Palm production stoppage is due to an impending acquisition by a party that wants to redirect Palm’s current product line … but that’s a charitable (less probable) interpretation. Mark this one as dubious.

Shifting production to another original equipment manufacturer (OEM)?

Foxconn CEO Terry Gou with Lin Chi-ling

Another reason to hit the “production kill-switch” is the possibility that Palm might be planning to shift handset production to another OEM. Foxconn is, after all, not the only low-cost/high volume electronics OEM in Asia. Palm may not like the fact that Apple gets favored son treatment from Foxconn and a shift to another manufacturer might improve Palm’s standing and reduce manufacturing costs. While this transition is possible, I’m adding this one to the highly doubtful category.

An interesting sidebar is that Apple () may be the one to spread out its production to other OEMs. While generally happy with Foxconn, Apple knows that they have a bunch of Mac and “i-device” eggs in one basket via Foxconn and they may (just a rumor) have awarded the “next gen” iPhone (iPhone 4G) contract to Pegatron, another Taiwan-owned OEM. Despite Apple’s rumored flirtations with Pegatron, Apple remains committed to Foxconn (Apple’s partner since 1986), and it appears that Hon Hai Precision will be manufacturing the forthcoming iPad.

AT&T and Verizon give Palm paltry orders?

Still another angle to the story is Palm’s supposed saviors — AT&T and Verizon. These two powerhouse carriers have signed on to distribute Palm’s new phones (the Pre, PrePlus and Pixi+) yet this is no assurance that Palm’s line will sell. The carriers need to guesstimate consumer demand (dictated to an extent via carrier promotions or lack thereof) and buy inventory for their own stores. If AT&T and Verizon are not jazzed about Palm’s offerings, they can affect production by ordering a “short” supply (Verizon was rumored to have ordered a paltry 5000 Pixi+ units). Why, you might ask, would AT&T and Verizon diss Palm’s new phones? I can think of 150,000 little reasons (apps not available on Palm products) and three big ones – Android and iPhone and iTunes.

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